... A Sour Apple Tree

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Location: Huntington, WV, United States

I'm a 37 year-old guy from Huntington, WV.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday Action Round-Up of Doom!!!

  • The WV GOP is getting in on the hot Tsunami Tuesday action with their convention today. To me, this reeks of disenfranchisement, but at least they are doing it to their own and not inner city blacks in Ohio or elderly Jews in Florida this time 'round. It is also bringing in three of the four big-name candidates (Romney, Huckabee, and Paul) and fistfuls of cash, so I sort of see where they are coming from. My guess is that Gov. Flip-Flop McGreatHair will win over the Huckster in the final round of voting and give him some much-needed rampartment as he seeks to stop the McCain juggernaut from wrapping up the nomination today. (Update: WSAZ is posting updates from the convention via cell phone)
  • That being said, look for McCain to clean-up big time today. Romney will have to do well in California, Massachusetts, and Utah and pick up the WV convention if he wants to keep things moving along. I also suspect that Huckabee will do no better than winning 2nd in a couple of primaries and eventually drop out in favor of McCain (and a shot at the Veep nod or a cabinet post).
  • With the Democrats, the proportional system of delegate allotment could leave the race a toss-up going into the later primary states. If women in California were swayed by Maria Shriver's endorsement of Obama and the weather remains pleasant over much of the country, look for him to come out of Super Tuesday with a slight edge. Otherwise, Clinton might have a lead thanks to support in the NY/NJ area and the meat 'n potatoes fly-over states. My guess is that the race will be settled on the 9th with Washington & Louisiana or the 12th with Virginia & Maryland. If neither side has ti sewn up by then, look for the campaigns to move toward heavy courting of the Super Delegates (elected officials, etc.)
  • My prediction is, that by the end of the night, McCain will have things damn-near in hand while the Democratic race will be as murky as ever, with HRC holding a slight advantage.

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