Huntington/West Virginia Primary Election Preview
President: Expect the expected. Clinton will win the state big-time, drawing huge numbers in the 48 or so rural counties while Obama puts up a strong showing in places like Huntington, Charleston, Beckley, and Morgantown where there are higher concentrations of college graduates and/or African Americans.
HRC's base in the state can probably be broken down into three categories: 1) people who, in good faith, think she would make a better president than Obama and would at least like to see her as VP 2) folks still loyal to the Clinton brand (we are loyal to a fault at times around here) 3) bigots who don't know if it is worse that he is half-black or half-Muslim.
It should be noted that those in the third category are not present in nearly as great of a number as some folks on DailyKos and Huffington Post message boards would have you believe.
Governor: Expect Manchin to rack up a huge victory against a one-term delegate best known for assuming that, if he had a gay employee, all of his other workers would automatically get AIDS.
Supreme Court: Depending on how the race breaks, it wouldn't be a huge shocker for any two of the four Democrats to move on to November.
For Menis Ketchum to win, he will have to hope that his base in the Huntington area goes for him in big numbers and that his folksy commercials won over enough folks outside of the Huntington/Charleston media market who have never heard of his law firm (note: if "the ladies are always right," why not vote for Workman?). Spike Maynard needs for his name recognition and the "fair and balanced" crowd to help in out in the face of overwhelming bad publicity over MonacoGate. Margaret Workman could backdoor the nomination if she cashes in on her name, does well in Charleston, and no one remembers that she quit before her last term on the court was over. Bob Bastress will need a strong anti-Maynard/pro-reform turnout and the support of Obama base to get the nod.
Secretary of State: I'm guessing that Joe DeLong's monetary might will equal a win in this race, where he can keep West Virginia safe for the gaming industry by, um, uhhh, doing whatever the hell this worthless job does.
Attorney General: If the state GOP knows what is good for them (and, after the whole Warner fiasco, I believe that they do not), they will nominate Dan Greear over Hiram Lewis. At this point, Lewis has crossed the "perennial also-ran" line and should quietly return to private life.
Cabell County Sheriff: The Democrats will nominate Tom McComas if they are looking for experience or Scott Bias if name recognition wins the day. Also, don't be surprised if some folks vote for Bias simply to get him off of the County Commission.
Huntington Mayor: If yard signs alone are any indication, Bob Bailey has a good shot at winning the nod over Mayor David Felinton. That being said, Felinton has made a career out of shocking the city and defeating veterans of Huntington's socio-political elite. Bailey has taken the campaign approach of reminding voters that he is, in fact, old and by taking credit for everything good that has ever happened in Cabell County, regardless of his personal involvement in the project. Felinton, on the other hand, has taken a "business as usual" approach where he has focused on day-to-day city operations over active campaigning. My guess is that he is hoping that the two minor candidates bleed enough protest vote away from Bailey while African Americans come out to support Brandi Jones, his consigliere, vicariously through him.
HRC's base in the state can probably be broken down into three categories: 1) people who, in good faith, think she would make a better president than Obama and would at least like to see her as VP 2) folks still loyal to the Clinton brand (we are loyal to a fault at times around here) 3) bigots who don't know if it is worse that he is half-black or half-Muslim.
It should be noted that those in the third category are not present in nearly as great of a number as some folks on DailyKos and Huffington Post message boards would have you believe.
Governor: Expect Manchin to rack up a huge victory against a one-term delegate best known for assuming that, if he had a gay employee, all of his other workers would automatically get AIDS.
Supreme Court: Depending on how the race breaks, it wouldn't be a huge shocker for any two of the four Democrats to move on to November.
For Menis Ketchum to win, he will have to hope that his base in the Huntington area goes for him in big numbers and that his folksy commercials won over enough folks outside of the Huntington/Charleston media market who have never heard of his law firm (note: if "the ladies are always right," why not vote for Workman?). Spike Maynard needs for his name recognition and the "fair and balanced" crowd to help in out in the face of overwhelming bad publicity over MonacoGate. Margaret Workman could backdoor the nomination if she cashes in on her name, does well in Charleston, and no one remembers that she quit before her last term on the court was over. Bob Bastress will need a strong anti-Maynard/pro-reform turnout and the support of Obama base to get the nod.
Secretary of State: I'm guessing that Joe DeLong's monetary might will equal a win in this race, where he can keep West Virginia safe for the gaming industry by, um, uhhh, doing whatever the hell this worthless job does.
Attorney General: If the state GOP knows what is good for them (and, after the whole Warner fiasco, I believe that they do not), they will nominate Dan Greear over Hiram Lewis. At this point, Lewis has crossed the "perennial also-ran" line and should quietly return to private life.
Cabell County Sheriff: The Democrats will nominate Tom McComas if they are looking for experience or Scott Bias if name recognition wins the day. Also, don't be surprised if some folks vote for Bias simply to get him off of the County Commission.
Huntington Mayor: If yard signs alone are any indication, Bob Bailey has a good shot at winning the nod over Mayor David Felinton. That being said, Felinton has made a career out of shocking the city and defeating veterans of Huntington's socio-political elite. Bailey has taken the campaign approach of reminding voters that he is, in fact, old and by taking credit for everything good that has ever happened in Cabell County, regardless of his personal involvement in the project. Felinton, on the other hand, has taken a "business as usual" approach where he has focused on day-to-day city operations over active campaigning. My guess is that he is hoping that the two minor candidates bleed enough protest vote away from Bailey while African Americans come out to support Brandi Jones, his consigliere, vicariously through him.
Labels: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Bob Bailey, Bob Bastress, Cabell County, David Felinton, Hillary Clinton, Huntington, Joe DeLong, Margaret Workman, Menis Ketchum, Spike Maynard, West Virginia
posted by Chris James | Tuesday, May 13, 2008
7 Comments:
Wow. I somehow had missed that nugget of info about Manchin's opponent.
I shudder at the thoughts of how much more privitization of state government we can handle in four more years of Manchin.
"Clinton will win the state big-time, drawing huge numbers in the 48 or so rural counties while Obama puts up a strong showing in places like Huntington, Charleston, Beckley, and Morgantown where there are higher concentrations of college graduates and/or African Americans."
I know the national media makes those sort of stereotypical assumptions, but you ought to know better.
Once Hillary isn't an option anymore, I'm hopeful that we can prove everyone who called us racists and bigots wrong... because I live in one of those 48 rural counties and up here, it's not a race thing; It's an economy thing. People want - and NEED - the economy to improve, and they remember that the last Clinton in the white house did all right economically. Plain and simple.
Then again, I can't speak for the whole state. Maybe down there, it *is* a race thing.
Yeah, bb, I'd forgotten about that, too. Sometimes a protest vote is just a protest vote. :(
At least it looks like Spike is going down in flames.
Ouch. I didn't know that about Kessler. I voted against Joe. I have never voted for Joe in my life. When you come from where I'm from, that means many years of writing in Mickey Mouse in the primaries. Even if I did like Joe, I would have voted against him as a protest against Heathergate.
Locally, the folks I liked made it. And I'm so excited that Natalie Tennant is doing so well!! I've known her for years. I greatly like and highly respect her, though we've never been close, we've alwyas been friendly.
And I was celebrating the Supreme Court elections in the street! Spike down, and I really like Menis and Margaret. Only met one of them but I know they have good reputations. I knew Spikey was in trouble when I got the "Menace" ads in the mail. it'll be a rough race in November, though.
Jenny: If you read a bit down in the post, I commented that the results are much less racially charged than Obama's netroots would have one believe.
That said, I wish that I could agree with you more, but I imagine that a comparison of census blocks and voting precints would find that Obama did better in places with higher concentrations of college educated folks and/or African Americans while Clinton dominated in areas that are almost entirely white and have been hit by brain drain.
As for Manchin, I skipped that one. My finger outright refused to tick either box.
It is also glorious that Spike has been sent packing, but a shame that Bastress didn't get the nod.
Well, I did vote for Bastress, but I'm still glad to see it's Workman and Ketchum with no Maynard for the primary.
Wonder which Rep Blankenship is gearing up another "for the children" campaign that really should read "for the coal operators"?
I just find it outrageous that nobody else had the courage to challenge status quo Joe other than Kessler. Not that it would have made any difference...but still.
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